溪頭自然教育園區為台灣重要的森林遊樂區之一,溪頭主要特色為園區內富含大量芬多精和天然原始林等。溪頭遊客人數於2006年再次突破100萬人次,至2011年更高達170萬人次,溪頭儼然成為旅遊熱門景點之一。 本研究之研究目的為:了解溪頭遊客人數是否存在週期性變動,並且針對其週期進一步探討;解析影響遊客人數變項和遊客人數關係;最後建立溪頭遊客人數模型。本研究發現溪頭遊客人數存在十三年、三個月、一個月及一週之週期;另一方面,受舒適度指數、降雨等級、例假日的不同,會使溪頭單日平均遊客量有所增減;而溪頭之友卡的措施、開放大陸觀光客來台及妖怪村的正式營運,則讓溪頭遊客人數呈現成長。整體而言,溪頭年遊客人次=907740-114603*E1996-650825*E1999 +116794*R1999+42835*E2000-68758*E2001+114437*R2001-59943*E2004+296558*E2008 +509340*E2010。本研究亦發現,溪頭之友卡於近年重新修定的優惠調整措施,能夠有效降低夏季假日的溪頭之友入園人數,並也略微增加非假日的入園人數。建議未來相關議題之研究者及管理當局可參酌本研究之結論,選擇較適當之影響遊客人數因子進行分析與探討,以期能得到較佳之結果。
Xitou Nature Education Area is one of the Taiwan Forest Recreation Areas, a large number of phytoncid the main features of the area rich and natural virgin forest etc. Vistors of Xitou exceeded one million in 2006 again, even 1.7 million in 2011.Xitou has become one of the popular tourist attractions. The purpose of this study : To understand if there are cyclical changes on the number of visitors in Xitou and explore its cycle further.To resolve the number of visitors and tourists the number of relations. To establishing Xitou number of tourists model in the final. This study has found that there are thirteen years, three months, one month and one week period; on the other hand, with different comfort index, rainfall levels, and holidays or working days,the average of single day tourists increase or decrease; with the Xitou Friends of card open to mainland tourists to Taiwan , and formal operation of the monster village, the number of Xitou visitors grown.Overall, Xitou tourists in one year=907740-114603*E1996-650825*E1999 +116794*R1999+42835*E2000-68758*E2001+114437*R2001-59943*E2004+296558*E2008 +509340*E2010.This study also found that favorable adjustment measures of the Friends of Xitou card in there-revised in recent years can effectively reduce the card admission in the summer holidays, and a slight increase in the number of non-holiday park. Researchers and authorities of the relevant issues are suggested to refer the conclusion of this study by selecting the appropriate factor to analysis and discuss tourist number in order to get better results.