本文提供一個新方法論,整合地震災害風險評估與土地使用變遷模型,評估與比較新竹市土地使用現況與未來變遷的預期地震損失與風險,以作爲災害評估與土地使用規劃的決策支援。透過新竹市的案例分析,發現影響土地使用變遷的主要因素,包含現有土地開發規模(或程度)、就業程度、人口規模、可及性、是否位於都市計畫區與毗鄰地區的土地使用型態。另比較新竹市土地使用變遷後與現況,發現變遷後的地震預期損失將較現況增加。增加的預期地震損失,主要來自大量的土地預期轉爲商業使用。因而如何引用適當的土地使用規劃與減災政策,降低土地使用與都市發展的潛在地震風險,成爲規劃者與地方政府的重大挑戰。
This study establishes a novel methodology that links a dynamic land-use change model to earthquake risk analysis. The proposed method provides a basis for examining the determinants of land-use conversion and their impacts on earthquake risk at a city level. In the case study for Hsinchu City, the analytical results indicate the main factors that affecting land-use changes are current land-use conditions, socio-economic characteristics, accessibility and policy constraints associated with the city. A comparison of the predicted land uses conversion with current land uses indicates that the estimated earthquake loss will increase significantly. The conversion of land to commercial use accounts for a large portion of the increase in earthquake risk. Therefore, how to reduce the seismic risk associated with these areas by applying available land-use planning tool or relative risk management measures is a major challenge for the city government and planners.