日本第一vs.和平崛起－冷戰前後東北亞國際秩序的衝突與整合

Japan as No.1 vs. Peaceful Rise-The International Conflicts and Integration in the North East Asia during the Cold War Thereabouts

張啟雄(Chi-Hsiung Chang)

《興大歷史學報》 17期 (2006/06) Pp. 599-640

https://doi.org/10.29624/CHJH.200606.0018

摘要

東北亞，在地理上屬於東亞的次級體系，在歷史上曾經創造出一個結合中國與周邊國家的「東亞共同體」，此「東亞共同體」本文稱之為「中華世界帝國」。它曾經在文化上普及了儒家思想，在政治上開創了宗藩體制，在經濟上創造過朝貢貿易體制，所以它是一個以中國為中心的傳統性東亞區域整合，也是一個具有共同文化價值的生命共同體。近代以降，日本在此共同文化價值之下，力倡「亞細亞主義」，也創造了「大東亞共榮圈」，雖曾在東北亞獨領風騷，但是敗於二次大戰。近代以來，原存於東亞的中國式「天下主義」與「中華世界帝國」，因先後受到西力東漸的壓制，繼遭日本勢力的取代，戰後更受到美國的圍堵，加上遭逢內戰分裂的危機，百年來幾乎自顧不暇。至此，傳統的東方式「東亞共同體」的理論與實際，全數崩解。
戰後，隨著日本的敗戰，日本式的「大東亞共榮圈」，迅即消失得無影無蹤。敗戰後的日本，歷經臥薪嚐膽的教訓，在美國的軍事保護下，迅速復興經濟，成為經濟大國，再轉投資於研發，遂成科技大國，進而將高科技商品化，更形成良性循環。日本竄起於1980年代，成為舉世聞名的「Japan as No.1」。此時，日本政府透過對外援助、投資以及技術移轉等國際經濟戰略部署，竟也創造出以經濟為主體的「雁行體系」(“Flying-Geese” Model)，在東亞地區形成以開發程度為序列的日本經濟勢力圈。在「東亞雁行體系」中，由經濟發展相對先進的日本當領頭雁、中進的韓台港星四小龍緊追在後、後進的東南亞開發中國家則殿後隨隊飛行，經濟性「東亞共同體」也隱然成形。此時，日本獨領風騷。日本遂又從經濟大國朝軍事大國政治大國邁步前進。
冷戰結束後，中國因加速改革開放的步伐，政經轉型漸收成功之效，遂步入小康社會的時代，又因「綜合國力」(Comprehensive National Power)節節提昇，逐漸形成中日共領風騷的兩強並立局面。此時，正好遇上全球化與區域化同時並進的風潮，世界各地正為締結自由貿易區(Free Trade Area，FTA)而如火如荼的展開協商，於是締結東亞自由貿易區(East Asian Free Trade Area，EAFTA)的浪潮，開始由東北亞湧向東南亞，東亞各國乃迅速召開東亞高峰會，成立東亞共同體(East Asian Community，EAC)，東北亞與東南亞整合的情勢也為未來的東亞共同體伏下兩強爭勝的獨領風騷形勢。
當今世界各國的競爭，簡單來說，就是「綜合國力」的競爭。綜合國力是一個國家的政治、經濟、外交、國防、安全、資源、科技、教育、文化、民族意志、凝聚力等要素之有機關聯、相互作用的綜合體，主要表現在透過高科技力量來展現高生產力的發展競爭。中日兩國在東北亞的競爭，其實就是綜合國力的競爭，而綜合國力的競爭結果，無形中就會產生霸權。在「一超多強」的世界框架之下，從綜合國力的角度來評量的話，東亞霸權相較於世界霸權，暫時只能算是區域性的霸權之爭而已。
從現實來看，中國與美、日間的綜合國力相差甚遠，尋求對抗並不切實際。就胡溫體制的外交布局而言，不外以遠交西歐，對美求同存異，聯俄平衡美日，作為其世界戰略布局的大架構，至於在東北亞的戰略布局，則以聯韓制日，利用朝鮮問題行大國外交，與日爭奪東亞霸權。日本則以日美聯盟作為外交基軸，配合美國的東亞戰略布局，以求在東亞獨領風騷，進而配合美國的世界戰略布局，而舉足輕重於世界。就全球層次而言，美國的世界戰略布局，仍不脫冷戰的思維與手法，即採取「一面圍堵、一面交往」的圍交政策。僅就東北亞的國際情勢而言，美國就是一方面聯合日本、南韓以及台灣，共同圍堵中國；另方面則引導中國踏進美國主導的國際關係網絡，強迫中國遵從美國主導的國際法則。
不過，從綜合國力來看，萌芽期的中國要突破美、日、（韓）、（台）在東北亞的圍堵，勢必仍須先韜光養晦以求自保，一面遵行美國主導的國際法則，一面則勵精圖治，伺機結交韓、台、日，以圖抗衡，而突破之道，就在其中。何況，日韓向來匹敵，日本向外發展的抵制力量就在韓、朝。東北亞中，日本向有稱霸東亞之志與實力，以中國為假想敵乃當然之事。既以中國為假想敵，日本勢須追隨美國以分享其外交利益，並交好美、韓、台以孤立中國。惟自近代以來，日本曾經侵略東亞各國，日韓久為世仇，中國必有可乘之機。台日關係雖甚密切，終仍不敵「血濃於水」之情，與大陸資源豐富和市場廣大之利。日本的「聯美制中」策，可能為韓國的「疏日親中」策所敗。不過，就國家的生存發展而言，國與國的關係，踏上對抗之途，即屬下策。
今日「東亞自由貿易區」或「東亞共同體」等區域政經整合，當不只是時代脈動而已，也是未來國家間共存共榮的願景。到底由「日本第一」或「和平崛起」的中國來領導區域內各國邁向「東亞自由貿易區」或「東亞共同體」的區域整合，將視中日爭霸的結果而定，又誰取得了東亞區域整合的領導權後，誰就能打下跟「一超」的美國分享世界領導權，安排國際秩序的基礎，進而突破現狀，朝高盛
証券（Goldman Sachs）所謂的2050年新時代里程碑邁進。
東亞自由貿易區或東亞共同體的呼聲既已高唱入雲，東亞各國也已踏上籌組「共同體」之途，共同體成員當不可再拘泥國界觀念，必須開始學習摒除「主權排他」的狹隘觀念，並由少而多的漸進讓出，以迎接層次更高之「東亞人」時代的來臨，以和平、平等、尊嚴、合意的協定方式，推動東亞區域整合，建立榮辱與共的「東亞國」生命共同體，讓國家間的權力鬥爭侷限於「東亞共同體」或「東亞自由貿易區」的領導權之爭，才是今日有識之士須全力以赴的當務之急。

關鍵字

日本第一 ； 和平崛起 ； 中華世界帝國 ； 綜合國力 ； 圍交政策 ； 東亞霸權

並列摘要

The North East Asia, geographically belongs to the sub-system in the East Asia, has once created the ”East Asian Community” which consists of China and its surrounding countries, as referred to ”Chinese World Empire” in this article. It popularized the Confucius thinking in term of culture, Suzerain-vassal System in politics, and Tribute Trade System in economy. In short, it was a China-center traditional regional integration in East Asia and also a life community with common culture value. Passed downward through the modern history, Japan, under this common culture value, promoted actively the ”Asianism” as well as the ”Great East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere”, which was once popular in the North East Asia but abandoned in WWⅡ. Meanwhile, the existing Chinese ”Universalism” and ”Chinese World Empire” in the East Asia were suppressed by Western influence to East and were succeeded by Japan afterward. The ”Chinese World Empire” was contained by the U.S. in the postwar period and encountered the crisis of the civil war. For the hundred years, it was merely self-protected. Therefore, the theory and practice of traditional eastern ”East Asian Community” were all collapsed.
After WWⅡ, following by the defeat of Japan, Japanese style ”Great East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere” was buried in the ash. The defeated Japan, learned the lesson and protected by the U.S. military, revived its economy and became the economic great power, and a technology great power because of reinvestment in R&D. It commercialized the high-tech and formed a positive circle. Japan rose in 1980s and became the well known ”Japan as No. 1”. At this moment, Japanese government used the international economic strategy measures, such as foreign aid, investment, technology transfer, and etc. Those measures formulated an economy-center ”Flying-Geese Model” and created a Japanese economic power circle sorted by the level of development. In this East Asian Flying Geese system, Japan as a relatively developed country took the lead, four little dragons (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) at the second, and the developing nations in the South East Asia at the last. Economic ”East Asian Community” was formed. Japan moved from an economic great power to military, even political one. At that time, Japan took the lead.
After the cold war, China, benefited from the reform and political-economical transformation, moved into the era of an overall well-off society. Also because of the rise of China's ”comprehensive national power”, it gradually formed the setting of two powers struggle for leadership, the China-Japan rivalry. At this moment, coincided with the trend of synchronizing the globalization and regionalization, the world has been occupying with negotiation of Free Trade Area (FTA). It created the trend of the East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA). The FTA negotiation spilled from North East Asia to South East Asia. East Asian nations then convened the East Asian Summit to establish the East Asian Community (EAC). The integrating North East and South East also constructed a future two powers struggle for the leadership in the East Asian Community.
The power struggle among the world nations, in brief, is the struggle for the ”comprehensive national power”. It's the linkage and interacted combination of one's politics, economy, diplomacy, national defense, security, resource, technology, education, culture, national will, and consensus. It mainly reflects the competence of the highly production through the high-tech power. The struggle between China and Japan is the one of ”comprehensive national power”. The result will generate the hegemony. Under the structure of ”One Super Power with Multiple Powers”, from the perspective of comprehensive national power, compared to the world hegemony, East Asian hegemony merely is a result of powers struggle inside the region. From realism perspective, compared to the U.S. and Japan, China's comprehensive national power is far behind and it is unpractical to confront. The diplomatic strategy of the Hu-Wen regime is to engage the West Europe, to cooperate with the U.S. while difference remains, and to ally Russia for balancing the U.S.-Japan as its framework of World strategy. For its strategy in the North East Asia, it is to ally Korea against Japan, to use Korea issue to pursue its big power diplomacy, and to fight with Japan for the East Asian hegemony. Based on the U.S.-Japan alliance as the diplomacy guideline, Japan accommodates itself to the U.S. East Asian strategy to seek the leadership in the East Asia, furthermore, to accommodate itself to the U.S. world strategy and to gain the influence over the world. From global perspective, the
U.S. world strategy remains in the cold war thinking and tactics, in another word, ”congagement” policy which adopts containment and engagement simultaneously. The implication for the international setting in the North East Asia is that the U.S. allies with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to jointly contain China, while guiding China into the international relation network and forcing China to obey the international rule of U.S., both are all dominated by the U.S.
However, from the comprehensive national power perspective, if newly rising China wants to break the containment of U.S., Japan, (Korea), and (Taiwan) in the North East Asia, she has to compromise for the self-preservation. By obeying the international rule dominated by the U.S. and developing its own economy at same time, China might seek the chance to engage Korea, Taiwan, and Japan to counter the containment. The way to break is within this process. Furthermore, Japan and Korea compete to each other heretofore. The counter force to restrain Japan's foreign development is Korea. In the North East Asia, Japan used to have the will and power to be the hegemony, consequently, China will be the imaginary enemy. Under this premise, Japan has to accommodate itself to the U.S. to share its interests in foreign policy and to engage the U.S., Korea, and Taiwan to isolate China. However, ever since the modern history, Japan had invaded the East Asian nations and has been the feudal enemy with Korea. This gives China certain space to maneuver. Even the Taiwan-Japan relationship has been closer; it might be less attractive comparing to the Chinese-blood relations and interests of abundant resources and huge market. The ”Allying U.S. to restrain China” of Japan could be defeated by the ”Alienating Japan to engage China” of Korea. But for the purpose of national survival, the rivalry status between state and state is the last choice.
The regional political and economical integration, such as ”East Asia Free Trade Area” or ”East Asian Community”, is not only the temporal phenomenon, rather the vision for co-existence and prosperity among the nations in the future. To lead by ”Japan as No. 1” or ”Peaceful rising China” in the regional integration towards ”East Asian Free Trade Area” or ”East Asian Community”, it will be defined by the result of duel between China and Japan for hegemony. Whoever winning the leadership in the East Asia would share with U.S. of its world leadership, arrange the international order, break the status quo, and reach the 2050 new era described by Goldman Sachs.
The voice for ”East Asian Free Trade Area” or ”East Asian Community” has already been spoken loudly. The East Asian nations are also on the way to organize the ”Community”. Those nations are not bounded to the idea of boundary and have to learn to abandon ”Exclusive Sovereignty”. With gradual concession to the coming ”Asian” era and the agreement of peace, equality, consensus, they will push the regional integration in East Asia and build a life community of fellow feeling ”State of East Asia”. Let the power struggle among nations limit to the leadership of ”East Asian Free Trade Area” or ”East Asian Community”. That is the imminent issue for the intellectuals to work on with all effort.

並列關鍵字

Japan as No.1 ； Peaceful Rise ； Chinese World Empire ； Comprehensive National Power ； Congagement ； East Asian Hegemony

參考文獻

張啟雄(2001)。海峽兩岸在亞洲開發銀行的中國代表權之爭－名分秩序論觀點的分析。臺北:中央研究院東北亞區域研究。

中印關於中國西藏地方和印度之間的通商及交通協定。

中國網

Josef Joffe,G. John Ikenberry(ed.)(2002).America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power.Ithaca:Cornell University Press.