本研究採用複迴歸模式,探討2000年1月至2011年12月(共計144筆月統計資料),台灣地區國際商品統一分類制度85電機與設備及其零件產業,出口至美國的內部因子與外部因子指標分析;並以所獲得的模式對2012年1月及2月HS85產業出口額進行預測與實證分析。 本研究結果顯示,內部因子相對於外部因子較能影響台灣出口產業。內部因子中的“台灣領先指數”、“機械電機設備進口值”以及“HS 85產品出口物價”,對於台灣電機與設備及其零件出口至美國皆呈現正相關且顯著的貢獻;外部因子中的“美國製造業中間材料PPI指數”對於產業出口呈現正相關。研究亦發現,此多元迴歸模式對短期預測能有一定的效力。
Using the multiple regression model, this research investigates the internal and external elements that affect Taiwan’s export of electrical machinery and the parts to the United States during the period of January, 2000 to December, 2011 (A total of 144 monthly data). The obtained regression model is then used to forecast the growth data of January and February of 2012 and conduct the analysis. The results of this research indicate that, among the various inner factors, “leading index”, “import port of mechanical equipment”, and “HS 85 export price” play a significant positive relationship with Taiwan’s export of electrical machinery and the parts to the United States. Among the various outer factors, “PPI of United State” plays a significant positive relationship with Taiwan’s export of electrical machinery and the parts to the United States. Multiple regression analysis (Leg one) is used for empirical equations in the in the research. This research also finds that the model thus obtained is useful to a certain degree in the short-term forecasting.