中共一帶一路倡議問題之研究

「絲綢之路」曾是歷史上中國連通歐、亞、非三洲文化、商業貿易的往來通道，從歷史來看，古代絲綢之路原為戰略考量訴求做為出發，最後衍伸至經濟與文化交流歷史成就，造就今日中國發展現代絲路的佈局。現今「一帶一路」為中國國家主席習近平在2013年9月訪問哈薩克斯坦與印度尼西亞期間提出，自習近平提出此倡議後，中國即開始傾力推動「一帶一路」並實踐此理想。　　「一帶一路」倡議亦可謂中共戰略構思之具體實現。因國際金融波動對世界各國影響持續顯現，各國經濟發展皆牽動國際局勢變化，中國則持續在國際投資及多邊貿易積極謀劃佈局，現今世界各國經貿頻繁、經濟依存逐漸加深，透過「一帶一路」倡議之推展將促成更緊密之合作，有利中國積極構建全方位經貿及戰略版圖，在推動「一帶一路」過程擷取古代陸上絲綢之路及海上絲綢之路經驗，串聯中國與中亞、西亞、南亞、東南亞、東非、歐洲等經貿管道，深化與各沿線國家互聯互通之伙伴關係。然而在中國挹注龐大資金投入「一帶一路」基礎建設之開展，開發過程資金調度仍存在不均衡現象，實際上中國政府口中的「互惠共贏」遭受各界批評如同「中國版的馬歇爾計畫」，透過此倡議創造內需，開展以中國利益為優先的發展模式，參與國透過向中國進行鉅額貸款建構基礎建設，卻引發深陷債務陷阱之風險，從而促成中國在海外進行軍事佈署之規劃，引發「一帶一路」參與國主權喪失之風險。　　當中國在經濟方面積極擴張之同時，引發美國關注中國對美貿易逆差問題。川普政府上任後，除積極解決中美貿易逆差，更針對中國「一帶一路」倡議之威脅，研擬「印太戰略」作為因應對策，以重新掌握亞太主導權。當「印太戰略」佈局逐漸形成，以及「一帶一路」內部問題接續發生，已對「一帶一路」之推動構成嚴峻挑戰。最後也促使中國逐步調整倡議內容。本論文整理「一帶一路」倡議至今實踐過程與成果，並透過「一帶一路」參與國之立場與反應，深入討論現階段「一帶一路」之內部問題與困境，以及美國為首牽制其發展的外在挑戰問題。

關鍵字

一帶一路；美中貿易戰；印太戰略

並列摘要

The Silk Road used to be a channel for the ancient China to connect Europe, Asia and Africa with cultures and commerce. It was originally meant for strategic purposes. Nevertheless, this route reached further to propel economic and cultural exchanges. Furthermore, it laid a foundation for China to develop the layout of its modern-day silk road. After the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed by the Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2013 during official visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia, the country began to promote and implement this idea. The Belt and Road Initiative can be described as the concrete realization of the Chinese Communist Party's strategic concept. As the impact of financial volatility on a global scale persisted and significantly changed the international situation, China continued to play an active role in international investment and multilateral trade. Through the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, China encouraged closer international cooperation and thus built a comprehensive, economic and strategic realm. The country attempted to connect the economic and trade channels in Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Africa and Europe, in addition to strengthen partnerships with countries along the routes. However, as China invested hugely in infrastructure, the phenomenon of imbalanced funds continued to exist. In fact, the outside world strongly criticized the Chinese government's so-called "reciprocity and win-win" plan and satirically called it "the Chinese version of the Marshall Plan". China created domestic demand, established a development model that prioritized its own interests, and most importantly, reached the goal of enhancing its military deployment overseas through the implementation of this initiative. Meanwhile, the participating countries built infrastructure with loans offered by China, and gradually stepped into "debt traps" and risked the danger of losing sovereignty. As China actively expanded its economic influences, the US began to notice such unfavorable "trade surplus" between the two countries. After taking office, President Donald Trump actively tried to solve the trade-deficit problem, and formulated the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" as a countermeasure against China's Belt and Road Initiative. His goal was to regain the dominance in Asia Pacific. The American version of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" started to take shape, whereas China encountered challenges during the implementation process of the Belt and Road Initiative and managed to adjust itself accordingly. This paper organizes the implementation process and achievements of the Belt and Road Initiative, and discusses the plan's current internal issues, plights and challenges posted by the US and its allies.