應用系統動態模式STELLA模擬臺北市溫室氣體減量情境及成本

The Simulation of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios and Costs in Taipei City by System Dynamic Model STELLA

盧科元(Ko-Yuan Lu)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境規劃與管理研究所/碩士(2007年)

摘要

本研究旨在以STELLA架構臺北市六部門溫室氣體系統動力模式，並以排放量最高的住商及運輸部門，模擬臺北市運輸與住商部門在不同減量情境下溫室氣體減量成效，與估算所需支出之年投資成本與年節省能源成本。推估結果得知2005年臺北市溫室氣體系統動力模式之排放量為15,886仟公噸，而至2030年排放量為25,708仟公噸，總成長率約為62%。其中以住商部門排放量所佔比例最多，約佔總排放量73%；其次為運輸部門，約佔總排放量28%。綜合運輸與住商部門減量行動估算臺北市溫室氣體減量比例及減量與節省能源成本，若採取「適度政策承諾策略」時，至2030年CO2減量可達1,520仟公噸，減量比例約為6%，平均年投資成本約為86億元，平均年節省能源成本約為69億元；而採取「主要政策承諾策略」時，CO2減量可達2,806仟公噸，減量比例約為11%，平均年投資成本約為160億元，平均年節省能源成本約為128億元；若採取「完全執行模擬情境」時，CO2減量可達4,288仟公噸，減量比例約為17%，平均年投資成本約為247億元，平均年節省能源成本約為198億元。至2030年臺北市溫室氣體總排放量平均減量1%所需支付之成本約為2.94億元。

關鍵字

系統動力模式 ； 減量行動 ； 減量情境 ； 年投資成本 ； 年節省能源成本

並列摘要

This study applied system dynamics model STELLA to establish six sectors of greenhouse gases sources in Taipei city. It simulated greenhouse gases reduction of transportation and residence business sectors at various scenarios. Levelized costs and energy saving costs have been estimated. The results show that Taipei city emitted 15,886 Gg of greenhouse gases per year in 2005, and will be 25,078 Gg in 2030, with an increase of 62%. Of the total 15,886 Gg greenhouse gases, 73% came from residence business sector, followed by transportation 28%. Three implication scenarios for greenhouse gases emission reduction are applied to transportation and residence business sectors. It is estimated that about 1,520 Gg/year (6%) can be saved in modest policy commitment, 2,806 Gg/year (11%) in major policy commitment, and 4,288 Gg/year in full implementation scenario by 2030. The annual levelized cost for modest policy commitment will be approximately NT$8.6 billion, NT$16.0 billion for major policy commitment, and NT$24.7 billion for full implementation scenario by 2030. The annual energy saving cost for modest policy commitment will be approximately NT$6.9 billion, NT$12.8 billion for major policy commitment, and NT$24.7 billion for full implementation scenario by 2030.

並列關鍵字

System dynamics ； Reduction plan ； Reduction action ； Annual levelized costs ； Annual save energy costs

參考文獻

[28] 呂昌棋，地方政府之溫室氣體排放量推估及管制策略分析-以臺北縣市為例，碩士論文，國立臺北科技大學環境規劃與管理研究所，臺北，2005。

[41] 道成國際工程顧問股份有限公司，「93年度臺北市溫室效應氣體排放基本資料調查及管制推動計畫」，臺北市環保局，2005。

[2] Costanza, R. and A. Voinov, “Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA: part III. Special issue of ecological modeling.”, vol. 143, 2001, pp1-146.

[3] Fiddaman T., “Exploring Policy Options with a Behavioral Climate-Economy Model”, System Dynamics Review, Vol. 18, no. 2, 2002, pp. 243-267.

[5] ICLEI, “The cities for climate protection campaign (CCPC) and the framing of local climate policy”, Local environment, vol. 9, no. 4, 2004, pp. 325-336.