以大氣擴散模式探討都會區內民眾之平均壽命與醫療支出-以台北市西門町徒步區為例

The Effect of Life Expectancy and Medical Expense Due to Air Quality in Urban Area by Atmospheric Diffusion Model – A Case Study of Hsimending Pedestrian District in Taipei

何書毅(Shu-Yi He)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

關於固定源與移動源管制作法施行策略已被執行，其中空氣品質淨化區的規劃亦屬於改善空氣品質的作法之ㄧ，如行人徒步區。因此，基於民眾較易曝露於高濃度之空氣污染，故本研究選擇西門町徒步區作為本研究探討案例，評估此區各項固定源（餐飲業與乾洗業）、移動源車輛經減量與本身當地現有植物及增設綠地面積淨化空氣污染後帶給民眾於個人終生平均壽命與醫療支出增減的效益。
其空氣污染物探討種類為PM10、O3 、SO2、NO2與CO，其中，臭氧部份則是由乾洗業、餐飲業與車輛排放之VOCs經光化反應所產生之臭氧濃度。首先先計算上述各項空氣污染物之年排放量（不包括臭氧），將之轉換成排放率（g/s），隨之配合氣象條件、建物高度等參數輸入至大氣擴散模式AERMOD中，以求得各受體點網格之濃度，並與本研究所設減量情境之施行比較空氣污染物減量前後濃度差，最後透過死亡與疾病之相對風險值、台北市94年度簡易生命表與94年衛生署統計健保醫療支出費用（呼吸道疾病與心血管疾病）計算各受體點網格之個人終生平均壽命與醫療支出。
將上述各受體點網格之個人終生平均壽命增加與節省之年醫療支出透過GIS建置資料庫檔，並給予各受體點網格漸層顏色，繪製個人終生平均壽命與醫療支出之圖層，以利檢視各地區減量效益之成效。
結果顯示PM10濃度降10.79 μg/m3，個人終生平均壽命增加112.48天，醫療支出降低300,000 元/年；O3濃度降低7.14 μg/m3，個人終生平均壽命增加56.13天，醫療支出降低54,000元/年；SO2濃度降低1.44 μg/m3，個人終生平均壽命增加16.64天，醫療支出降低19,000元/年；NO2濃度降低5.60 μg/m3，個人終生平均壽命增加11.53天，醫療支出降低77,000元/年；CO濃度降低224.94 μg/m3，個人終生平均壽命增加15.32天，醫療支出降低100,000元/年。
故PM10濃度改善對西門町徒步區居民健康獲致效益最大，不論是增加之個人終生平均壽命與醫療支出，是其餘4個空氣污染物濃度減量效果最佳，印證PM10對人體健康之影響最大。至於CO之濃度改善雖是其餘4個空氣污染物中減量效果最佳，但基於CO於不同濃度下對人體健康影響反應指出，CO濃度需夠大，才能較明顯表現其對人體健康影響，故本研究之CO濃度改善，對西門町徒步區居民之健康改善效果，比起其餘4個空氣污染物較差。

關鍵字

都會區 ； 行人徒步區 ； AERMOD ； 平均壽命 ； 醫療支出 ； 地理資訊系統

並列摘要

Policies for abating stationary sources and mobile source have been administered, included a plan of air quality purification area. For example, the pedestrian district in Hsimending where people have more opportunities to expose in air pollutants of high concentration. This paper is to study and discuss the population in this pedestrian district affected by abating Stationary Sources（e.g. restaurant industry and dry clean shops）and Mobile Source, as well as the existing plant and additional green area used for purifying air pollution concentrations in Hsimending pedestrian district, in order to evaluate the averaged life of residents and the efficiency of medical expense.
The concentration of O3 is produced from VOCs by photochemical reaction, and VOCs is emitted from dry clean shops, restaurant, and vehicles.
Firstly, it is essential to calculate how much pollutants are emitted yearly (exclusive of ozone), then we transform the amount of emission to the emission rate (g/s), and add the parameters of the climate conditions and the heights of the buildings into AERMOD; therefore, the concentration of each area unit can be acquired in Hsimending pedestrian district. Besides, the difference of concentration of air pollutants before and after reduction is compared in this study. Finally, through the death and disease relative risk values, 94th year simple life table, and 94th year the Department of Health statistics medical expenditures (respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) in Taipei, we calculate average life expectancy of the individual and medical expenditure in each area unit. Finally, the database of long life span’s individuals and the medical expenditure is built up by GIS, and different levels of color darkness are applied on each area unit to depict a chart of individual life span and the medical expenditure in order to exam the efficiency of reduction in each area.
The results showed that PM10 concentration is reduced by 10.79 μg/m3, correspondingly the life expectancy of the individual can be increased by 112.48 days, and 300,000 dollars of medical expenditure in each year can be reduced；O3 concentration is reduced by 7.14 μg/m3, correspondingly the life expectancy of the individual can be increased by 56.13, and 54,000 dollars of medical expenditure in each year can be reduced.
SO2 concentration is reduced by 1.44 μg/m3, correspondingly the life expectancy of the individual can be increased by 16.64, and 19,000 dollars of medical expenditure in each year can be reduced；NO2 concentration is reduced by 5.60 μg/m3, correspondingly the life expectancy of the individual is increased by 11.53, and 77,000 dollars of medical expenditure in each year can be reduced；CO concentration is reduced by 224.94 μg/m3, correspondingly the life expectancy of the individual is increased by 15.32, and 100,000 dollars of medical expenditure in each year can be reduced.
Therefore, the reduction of PM10 concentration can improve the health of the inhabitants for the greatest benefits in Hsimending pedestrian district. Comparing with the other four air pollutants, PM10 is proved to be the most effective to increase life expectancy of individuals and reduce medical expenditure. As the result, PM10 can affect and improve human health the most.
Although the concentration of CO reduction is the highest among those four air pollutants the concentration of CO needs to be higher to present the better effectiveness on human health improvement; therefore, the effectiveness of improving CO concentration is poorer than the other four air pollutants in this study.

並列關鍵字

Urban Area ； Pedestrian District ； AERMOD ； Life Expectancy ； Medical Expense ； GIS

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