區段徵收財務分析模型之建立

從80年以後，政府漸以區段徵收方式進行土地開發，以取得所需要的公共設施用地或開發新社區，為政府省下不少的公共建設預算支出，惟近幾年大環境不景氣，連帶影響房地產，以致一些區段徵收開發案遭逢開發後土地標售不易的現象，使屬財務自償的區段徵收開發，原欲以標售土地的收入來償還所投入的開發成本，無法依原定時程或價格標售到市場，影響到整體的財務體質，甚至無法達財務自償；因此近來各開發案於可行性評估過程，均相當重視財務分析，所以本研究基於此需求，即依相關實務經驗及文獻，嘗試建立區段徵收財務分析的模型。本區段徵收財務分析模型以原始規劃的都市計畫內容及依區段徵收相關規定無償取得公共設施為出發點，借助財務分析方法中，淨現值法及現金流量表觀念，依序以開發成本及開發收入來進行分析，開發成本包含了現金補償地價估算（土地所有權人領取現金補償地價比例分析）、地上物補償費及遷移費估算、公共設施及土地整理費用估算、貸款利息估算等，而開發收入部份包含開發後標讓售土地價格分析及土地銷售期程分析等，將上開開發成本及收入製作成現金流量表，並從上開開發成本及收入中歸納出五個影響變數，再加上發還土地所有權人抵價地比例變數，一共六個變數進行敏感度分析，依最後的淨現值變動比率最多的三個變數，倆倆進行情境分析，得出最後的分析結果，分析結果若財務無法無償，可循回饋機制修正原無償取得的公共設施比例或都市計畫規劃內容，最後在符合財務自償原則下，提出發還抵價地比例區間，供區段徵收相關委員會或長官做最後裁示。本研究並以二個個案依本研究區段徵收財務分析模型來實際進行模擬分析，以便能更清楚了解本研究區段徵收財務分析的模型。總之，區段徵收開發透過客觀的財務分析結果，審視所規劃的都市計畫內容及預計無償取得的公共設施面積可否執行，暨訂定合理的發還抵價地比例。

關鍵字

區段徵收；土地所有權人領取現金補償地價比例；發還抵價地比例；敏感度分析；情境分析

並列摘要

Since 1991, the government has gradually been proceeding with land exploitations by zone expropriation to obtain the lands for public facilities or develop new communities. This has saved some expenses in public-construction budgets for the government. However, the environment-wide depression affected the estate trade in recent years, resulting in a symptom of land-auctioned difficulties for some development cases of zone expropriation after the exploitations. Under such circumstances, even though it was intended to pay back for the development costs with the revenues of the auctioned lands, the development of financial self-liquidity zone expropriation couldn’t be sold out to the markets with the original schedule or price, and it affected the whole financial quality, failing to meet the financial self-liquidity. Therefore, the recent development cases pay much emphasis on financial analysis in the viable assessment period. Based on such a demand, the study tries to construct the model of financial analysis on zone expropriation according to relative practical experiences and literature review. The model starts with the contents of original city planning and the gratuitous public facilities on relative regulations of zone expropriation. With the help of two concepts in financial analysis---net present value and statement of cash flow, development-costs analysis and development-revenues analysis are put into analysis in turn. While development-costs analysis consists of estimation of cash compensation, the ratio of cash compensation by land owners, estimation of facilities compensation and migrated-expense, estimation of public facilities and land unscrambled-expense, and estimation of loan-interests, development-revenues analysis is composed of the analysis of land-auctioned and land-attorned prices after development, and the analysis of land-sales period. Then, the statement of cash flow is made accordingly. Furthermore, five variables are inducted from development-costs and development-revenues, adding the ratio of pay-for-land. These six variables are then used to proceed with sensitivity analysis. The largest three variables of net present value are chosen for scenario analysis with one another, inducing the final result of analysis. If the result can’t meet the financial self-liquidity, it can follow up the feedback mechanism to revise the ratio of original gratuitous public facilities or the contents of city planning. Finally, on the principle of meeting financial self-liquidity, the ratio zone of pay-for-land is proposed to the relative committee or commissioners to make the final decision. The study also proceeds with practical simulated analysis with two cases so as to make the model of financial analysis on zone expropriation clearer. Simply put, through objective results of financial analysis, zone expropriation investigates all contents of city planning, predicts the viability of the ratio of areas of gratuitous public facilities, and set up a reasonable ratio of pay-for-land.