臺灣少子化趨勢下的對策—日本經驗的啟發

由於時代快速變遷，社會價值欲趨多元，「少子化」現象，已成為未來全球社會發展不可避免的趨勢。世界先進國家幾乎都面臨生育率下降及人口老化問題，亞洲國家「少子化」情形以日本發生最早，創全世界最低記錄；隨著工商業發達與進步，臺灣在人口問題上與日本一樣亦面臨相同問題。臺灣的總生育率從1951年的7.04人一路下滑至1983年的2.17人，1985年低於「替代水準」2.1人以下。2007年臺灣的育齡婦女總生育率比日本的1.34人還要低為1.10人。由此可知，臺灣出生率下滑的程度遠超過日本，是「少子化」發展速度最快的國家，「少子化」問題比日本還要嚴重。其不僅對國家經濟結構帶來重大衝擊，更全面威脅企業與國家未來之發展力與競爭力。如何因應未來少子高齡化社會的挑戰，是當前臺灣社會迫在眉睫的重要議題。日本在二次大戰後的1940年代後半出現嬰兒潮高峰期，育齡婦女的總生育率約為5.0，1997年步入「少子高齡化社會」，2003年時出現了戰後首次低於1.3的紀錄，而被稱為『超少子化國家』，2005年更降到1.25人，創下歷史新低紀錄。面對空前嚴重的少子化問題，日本政府於1990年代開始提出因應之道，從「天使計畫」、「新天使計畫」、「次世代培養支援對策推進法」、「少子化對策基本法」、「少子化社會對策大綱」、「新少子化對策」及「支援兒童與家庭的日本」重點戰略等等一系列的少子化對策，針對幼托政策進行種種的努力，以社會共生、共擔兒童教養責任為願景，提供良好育兒措施、工作環境，減輕育兒家庭經濟負擔，至今已建立了獨樹一格的「少子化對策」。依據日本厚生勞動省公布的人口動態統計顯示2007年的總生育率為1.34人，與2006年的1.32人已連續兩年呈上升趨勢，由此可知，日本少子化對策對於提升生育率已稍具成效。少子化」問題的成因涉及社會、經濟、文化等方面，其主要原因不外是晚婚、晚育、不婚及離婚人口增加，育齡婦女有偶率降低、生育態度及與養育子女價值觀的改變、婦女勞動參與率增加引發的工作與家庭兩難壓力，生兒育女經濟負擔沉重以及育兒資源與支持性環境不足，大多數人雖肯定子女的價值，但對養兒防老的期待已明顯降低，進而減弱生育子女的經濟動機。面對臺灣生育率如同溜滑梯般的下降速度，政府並未特別的重視「少子化」問題，而且也不像日本政府特別針對「少子化」問題而提出具體鼓勵生育的政策，僅僅只是將其視為人口政策的一小部分。日本的少子化因應對策起步甚早且傾向長期性規劃，可算是亞洲各國的先驅，與日本相比，我國似乎缺乏一個全面性規劃的「少子化對策」。為有效逆轉生育率，有賴全面、多元、整合性的政策措施，政策著眼於協助家庭及婦女減低工作與家庭間的衝突與壓力，建立一個對女性友善的制度環境，以排除想要生育的障礙，以阻緩生育率下跌的趨勢。本研究將分析臺灣「少子化」產生的原因與可能的影響，藉由探討日本政府「少子化對策」實施的內容以及理念方向，做為臺灣當局謀求解決相同問題之借鏡及思考因應方法的參據。

關鍵字

少子化；高齡社會；生育率少子化對策

並列摘要

Due to the socio-economic changes, the decreasing population of children is a common phenomenon in the advanced countries. Population decline becomes an unavoidable destiny. The developed countries have a remarkable decline in total fertility rates (TFR), meaning that the countries will inevitably face the problems of negative population growth and an aging society. Japanese TFR was 1.25 in 2005, which was the lowest level among East Asian countries. Taiwan used to have a very high fertility rate in the early 1950s. Along with the rapid industrial and commercial development, Taiwan began to face the same population problems as those happened in Japan. A sharp drop in fertility rate occurred in 1983. Fertility rate kept declining from 7.04 to less than the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) during the period from 1951 to 1985. It continued the decreasing trend though with some fluctuations, to 1.10 births per woman in 2007. Needless to say, the declining birth rate of Taiwan is even worse than that of Japan. A continuous decline in the number of children per family will be an unavoidable trend for Taiwan’s society. Such demographic changes would cause many serious problems as the crises in public pension system, labor shortage, economic recession, and loss of societal vitality. This will have a great, direct impact not only on population policy, but also on healthcare, financial, industrial, education, agricultural, social and other policy areas. Feasible policy measures need to be offered in all these areas to contend with the population decline and the rise of aging population. The peak of Japanese baby boom appeared after the Second World War, the TFR was approximately 5.0 at that time. After a quick transition, TFR stayed around the replacement level of fertility until the mid-1970s. The total fertility rate of Japan dropped to 1.29 in 2003, which is called “The Ultra Low Birth Rate Country”. The fertility declined to 1.25 in 2005, which is the lowest ever recorded in Japanese vital statistics history. The Japanese government was shocked with the TFR of 1.57 in 1989 and launched a variety of prenatal policy measures to cope with the declining fertility in 1990. Measures applied by the central government included expansion of child allowance, tax relief, maternity leave, childcare leave and improvement in childcare services, etc. Japan has established an example in prenatal policy measures. Japanese fertility rate rose gradually, which means governmental policy interventions have been successful in preventing further fertility decline. The low birth rate issue relates to many aspects of society, economy, culture, and so on. There are plenty of reasons for couple to not want to raise children. Its primary factors are a fall in marriage rates, a fall in marital fertility, cohort marriage postponement and an increase in the proportions never married. Financial difficulties have long been the most important factor for couples don’t want children. The salary of ordinary people has stagnated since the past decade but commodity price increased each year. Especially, raising a child costs large amounts of money. Moreover, Taiwan did not offer her people with a good welfare program. Another reason is that the traditional Chinese values have been dramatically changing. The new generations prefer enjoying their own life to raising a child. Under the low compatibility between working-mother and childrearing, the growth in female labor force participation had a significant negative impact on fertility. Women face a dilemma between career and family. It is essential that government should provide daycare services and public support of childrearing for working mother. The low birth rate can cause more severe problems for the country in the future. The government should develop a series of policy intervention. In order to solve the problems, it is necessary to adopt practical measures to encourage couple to have children. Those who wish to have children but are unable to do so should be helped to fulfill their wish. A universal, diverse and convenient system of high-quality care and education services for infants and small children needs to be made available to reduce the burden of parenthood. Such approaches should offer the most effective means of achieving population goals without imposing too heavy a burden on government finances. The related departments of government need to work together to find the best way that can encourage people to raise children. The child care policies of Japan started early, which was pioneer in East Asian countries. Comparing with Japan, Taiwan needs the integration of prenatal policies. The purpose of this study is to investigate a series of child care policies and the characteristics of those policies in recent Japan. The research results can be a useful reference to cope with the problem of low birth rate and for the development of prenatal policy measures in Taiwan.