溝槽式動態隨機存取記憶體製造廠商發展策略研究

Trench DRAM Manufacturer Developing Strategy Study

張天豪(Tien-Hao Chang)

指導教授 ： 巫和懋 ； 陳文華

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.10526

摘要

本論文以價值網分析與賽局理論為基礎，針對DRAM製造產業中的溝槽式技術陣營廠商，包括奇夢達、南亞科技、華亞科技及華邦電子，分析廠商間互動模式，可能的合作及成長策略。論文主要分為三大部份：
第一部分為研究架構與文獻回顧，包含價值網分析、賽局理論、蛛網理論。以價值網分析來解釋溝槽式陣營廠商的相對關係。價值網的特色在於打破傳統以競爭為主要思考的關係模型，強調互補者的角色，說明競爭對手或同業的失敗，不一定對自己有利，指明市場中合作與競爭的行為皆一樣重要。在價值網中，每家廠商彼此之間的角色與關係可以是多重而且變化的，一家廠商與其他廠商可以同時扮演又是互補者又是競爭者的角色。再談到賽局理論，用來分析廠商在技術與產能兩大要素的互動模式。強調以策略性思維(Looking forward and Reasoning back) 來分析，找出可能合作的成長策略。最後提到蛛網理論，解釋DRAM產業因供給面有投資效益遞延的關係，往往因市場需求的改變而造成價格的大幅波動。
第二部分為DRAM產業概述、包含溝槽式陣營廠商簡介與其共同面對的問題。DRAM產業特性是資金需求龐大，技術演進快速，價格波動大且進入及退出市場的障礙高。過去十年來DRAM製造產業成長及變化很大，從全盛時期約20家廠商到如今整合成以三星、海力士、美光、爾必達及奇夢達為首的五大陣營共9家廠商。2006年底，溝槽式陣營廠商加總市佔率約為22%，面對堆疊式DRAM廠商的積極擴充產能及提高市佔率，溝槽式陣營如何能持續擴充產能來維持一定的市場規模，獲取足夠利潤支持其未來技術發展的花費，這是溝槽式陣營廠商所共同面臨的挑戰。
第三部分為溝槽式陣營廠商發展策略互動推論，最後是結論與建議。先從DRAM製造產業的兩大要素：技術與資金來切入，找出溝槽式陣營廠商間兩大要素能力的相對位置，再從兩大要素的優勢廠商：奇夢達和南亞科技，以賽局理論來推論在90奈米，70奈米，60奈米三個技術世代的可能互動模式，包含如何創造價值(creating value)及分配價值(claiming value)。最後提出溝槽式陣營廠商的各自發展策略建議。

關鍵字

DRAM ； 溝槽式DRAM ； 價值網 ； 賽局理論

並列摘要

This thesis using Value Net analysis and game theory as foundation, selectively examined DRAM manufacturers specialized in Trench technology of DRAM manufacturing industry, analyzed their interacting modes, in addition to possible collaboration and growth strategies. The thesis is divided into three main sections:

First section concern the framework of study and literature reviews, including Value Net theory. This theory is to illustrate relative positions for Trench Group manufacturers. Characteristics of Value Net theory mainly resides at breaking out the traditional thinking constraints, in which the competition is the main thinking mode. In addition, it stresses complimenting roles, illustrates that the failure from competitor or those in the same trade, is not necessarily to its own advantage. And it further demonstrates acts of market collaboration and competing is equally important. In Value Net, each enterprise’s role and relation to each other are multiple and varying in nature. An enterprise and other enterprise(s) can play the role of simultaneously complementing and competing with each other. Next, the Game theory is used to analyze the interacting mode for two vital elements, as of technology and manufacturing capacity. This theory emphasizes strategic thinking: 「Looking forward and Reasoning back」. Last in this section, cobweb theory was referenced to explain deferred investment gain at the supply side of DRAM industry, thus, change of market demand would result price-swinging.

The second section is consisted of DRAM industry summary, brief accounts for manufacturer of Trench technology group and descriptions of their common challenge. DRAM industry characteristics are that, capital demand is huge, technology evolution is fast, price-swinging is constant, and barriers on both entering and exiting market are high. In the past ten years, DRAM manufacturing industry had been going through several ups and downs. At its peak, there were about 20 manufacturers. Now nine out of the original twenty remained as members of five major camps：Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Elpida in Stack camp and Qimonda in Trench technology. Trench technology group has Qimonda, Nanya, Inotera and Winbond. At the end of 2006, Trench technology group occupied 22% of the total market share. When Stack DRAM manufacturers are aggressively expanding production capacity and encroaching upon market shares, then the question is: How Trench camp can consistently expand production capacities to maintain a certain magnitude of market share? The market share, in turn, equates to profitable enough to sustain future technology development cost. These are the common challenge all members of Trench technology group should face up to.

The third section is to deduce and extrapolate interactive development strategies for manufacturers of Trench technology group, then summarize and finally propose. This section starts from the two main elements for DRAM manufacturing Industry: technology and capital. Locate the relative position for each manufacturer in Trench group. Next, from manufacturers which are strong on the relative positions: Qimonda and Nanya, we apply game theory to deduce and extrapolate possible interactive modes from the three technology generations: 90nm, 70nm, and 60nm. Lastly, we will propose development strategies for each manufacturer of Trench technology group, respectively.

並列關鍵字

DRAM ； Trench DRAM ； Value Net ； Game theory

參考文獻

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