總體經濟與台灣房地產價格之非線性研究

Non-linear Relationship between Macroeconomics and Taiwan Real Estate Research

黃倧賦(Tsung-Fu Huang)

指導教授 ： 聶建中

共同指導教授 ： 陳達新

淡江大學/商管學院/財務金融學系碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00916

摘要

近年來房地產價格漲幅已形成一股民怨，要求政府打房聲浪不斷，在此期間，國際經濟情勢也發生了重大轉變，歷經金融海嘯、歐債危機到量化寬鬆政策，房地產價格也因此受到了波及，故總體經濟因素的變化會使房地產價格影響，此研究透過總體經濟面的因素，分析2001年第1季至2013年第4季的資料，觀察台北市、新北市、台中市三個都會區之房價，透過非線性方法之平滑移轉模型，以貨幣供給成長率、五大行庫承做房貸利率、消費者物價指數成長率及經濟成長率作為解釋變數，並以五大行庫承做房貸利率作為門檻變數，探討利率於不同範圍內，對房地產價格指數受總體經濟因素影響產生何種變化。實證結果發現，利率在小於門檻值，或者門檻值附近時，此三地房地產價格與房貸利率皆具有顯著的相關性，政府可藉由觀察房貸利率介於何者區間，進行對利率的調控，藉此影響市場上的貨幣供給量，同時提升或降低個人或企業的資金成本，利用資金成本的管控，對不同地區的房市加以調控。

關鍵字

平滑移轉 ； 房地產 ； 總體經濟因素

並列摘要

Real estate prices rose has become an grievances, Besides, the international economic situation has also undergone a major change, after the financial crisis, the European debt crisis to the quantitative easing policy, real estate prices have been affected. Changes in the overall economic factors will affect real estate prices, general economic factors in this study through the surface, analyze the data for the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2013, observing Taipei, New Taipei City, Taichung City. Through smooth migration model nonlinear methods to money supply growth rate, the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates, consumer price index growth rate and economic growth rate as the explanatory variable, and the five banks that undertook the mortgage. By the overall economic factors which impact on the real estate price index changes. Empirical results show that the interest rate is less than the threshold value, or when near threshold, this three real estate prices and mortgage rates were significantly correlated with the government may be observed whichever interval between mortgage interest rates, conducted for the regulation of interest rates, by This impact of money supply on the market, while raising or lowering the cost of capital by individuals and businesses, the use of cost of capital controls, to be regulated in different parts of the housing market.

並列關鍵字

macroeconomic factors ； real estate ； Smooth Transition Model

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